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The Uncertainty Project

High performing teams make better decisions, faster. We share models, techniques, and thought provoking research on strategic decision making and navigating uncertainty.

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John May, +1

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Featured Posts

🔮 What is the right amount of 'Strategic Ambiguity'?

May 2, 2023

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9 min read

🔮 What is the right amount of 'Strategic Ambiguity'?

Featuring Chris Butler, Lead PM at Google - we also highlight 'Decision Rights' and better tools for disagreeing

🔮 The role of conviction and narrative in decision making

Mar 16, 2023

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19 min read

🔮 The role of conviction and narrative in decision making

Conviction as a superpower, why we tend to be overly optimistic, and how outcome trees help us map potential outcomes

The Uncertainty Team
The Uncertainty Team
🔮 OKRs and goal setting through the lens of decision making

Mar 9, 2023

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16 min read

🔮 OKRs and goal setting through the lens of decision making

Exploring how goals help teams make better decisions, strategic misrepresentation, and the power of 'Even Over' statements

The Uncertainty Team
The Uncertainty Team

Archive

🔮 Transformation as BAU

Jul 6, 2025

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15 min read

🔮 Transformation as BAU

Harnessing the power of portfolios in the Product Operating Model

John May
John May
 🔮 The Great Flattening

Jun 29, 2025

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11 min read

🔮 The Great Flattening

How to adapt when every team is empowered to deliver value

John May
John May
🔮 Uncertainty as Doubt (Part 2)

May 11, 2025

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12 min read

🔮 Uncertainty as Doubt (Part 2)

Completing the tour through Amar Bhide's "Uncertainty and Enterprise"

John May
John May
🔮 Uncertainty as Doubt (Part 1)

May 4, 2025

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13 min read

🔮 Uncertainty as Doubt (Part 1)

A two-part tour through Amar Bhide's "Uncertainty and Enterprise"

John May
John May
🔮 Exploring Changes, Together

Apr 6, 2025

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10 min read

🔮 Exploring Changes, Together

Considering the varied skillsets needed to try out these new ideas

John May
John May
 🔮 Revisiting subjective probabilities

Mar 30, 2025

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13 min read

🔮 Revisiting subjective probabilities

Pivoting from a focus on Bayesian priors to a focus on reference narratives

John May
John May
Coming Down the Mountain

Feb 23, 2025

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13 min read

Coming Down the Mountain

How our organizational DNA shapes our organizational culture

John May
John May
Getting started, exploring possibilities

Jan 29, 2025

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11 min read

Getting started, exploring possibilities

Examples of simple Strategy 5x5s for mid-level managers

John May
John May
Exploring strategy, technically speaking

Jan 22, 2025

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13 min read

Exploring strategy, technically speaking

Examples of Strategy 5x5s for technical leaders

John May
John May
...
The Uncertainty Project

The Uncertainty Project

High performing teams make better decisions, faster. We share models, techniques, and thought provoking research on strategic decision making and navigating uncertainty.


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